"Let me say this to my readers: the NATO intervention in Libya will bring you a Bin Ladenite republic the likes of which we have not seen since the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan. A monster is about to be born there. And some of those armed factions will be engaging in a war against Western targets. I have seen this movie before."
Is the Professor exaggerating? Nothing is settled in Natostan except that the Europeans are back in charge of oil production and distribution (i.e., to Europe). On the BBC News channel this morning the question that was skirted round but was almost expressed was, "When does the bloodbath start?" For black-skinned Fezzanis and other 'abid', it has started already.
If and when the power struggle develops into civil war Cameron-Sarkozy-Merkel will shrug their shoulders and say "Tut-tut, but none of our business." As long as the oil keeps flowing, that is. Oil is the ace all the factions will want to hold.
The IMF will turn up and demand that the welfare system Gadhafi introduced be dismantled and the privateers be allowed to gorge themselves on the remains.
During the rising that western media insist on calling a revolution* the only slogan I heard from the fighters was "allahu akbar". I don't recall hearing any reference from the rebels to freedom, democracy, human rights. So maybe a theocracy is on the cards. Allah rules, through his venal, shifty representatives on earth.
Then there's the ubiquitous flag. The Natostanis have more flags than the Yanks, and that's going some. It is the flag of the Sanusi monarchy, another pseudo-theocratic mob. Are they going to make a comeback? Maybe in an alliance with those oxymoronic 'Wahhabi moderates'.
So, whatever bullshit we hear from Cameron and Mme. Clinton, no democracy, no human rights. Probably a rigged election which UN observers will find to be 'flawed', but somehow acceptable.
Like the professor we've all seen this movie before. Some of us may be old enough to remember the version featuring the arch-villain, Mossadegh; or the one in which Iraq was saved from the red menace by the more acceptable Baath party "riding to power on the CIA train". That's the Baath Party of Saddam Hussein and Bashshar al-Asad.
"History repeats itself , first as tragedy, then as farce." (K. Marx) History is one long tragedy for the wretched of the earth (J. Hope)
*Perhaps in the sense that a revolution means a 360 degree turn with everything ending up in the same place.